Trade war, threat of attachment: how Trump changed the course of the Canadian election

Only five months ago, the victory of the conservative party in Canada seems certain.

Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada and Leader of Liberal Party, is widely unpopular, and polls show conservatives with what looks like a 25 -point advantage that cannot be overcome.

Then the US voters went to the polling station. Donald Trump’s victory began to echo in Canada.

He imposed tariffs, including 25% levy to Canadian goods; Claiming Fentanyl from China flows into the US from the northern border; And threatening Canadian sovereignty, saying Canada must be the 51st country and call Trudeau as “Governor of Trudeau.”

Many Canadians become angry. Visit to the US began to fall and several American products boycotted. Then, Trudeau resigned in March, and liberals chose Mark Carney as their new leader.

The leader of 25 conservative points has been issued, and support for liberals has developed.

Now, with the election set for Monday, April 28, Pollsters said that conservatives have lost too much basis to be redeemed. The poll predicts losses for conservatives and leaders of Pierre Poilievre.

Canada has a parliamentary system. Therefore, if liberals win the majority of seats in the election, or are able to form a minority government with other party members, Carney becomes prime minister.

Political and Canadian experts said that Trump was undoubtedly changing the course of the election.

“There is no rebound for the Liberal Party if Donald Trump does not intervene like he did,” Dance Ajadi, Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at McGill University in Montreal, told ABC News.

“If Donald Trump did not win the second term, I did not think there would be hope for liberals, regardless of whether they changed leaders at this time,” he said. “But once Trump won the second term, and once Trump tried to violate Canada’s sovereignty, it changed all races.”

Trump Broken AS-Kakanada Alliance

In early 2025, the liberal party faced a crisis. Trudeau, who has been a prime minister since November 2015, was originally “very popular,” according to Adam Chapnick, a Professor of Defense Studies at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto.

However, he was disturbed by uncertainty in the following years due to an increase in the crisis of living costs in Canada, and a small scandal. Some of his cabinet ministers resigned in 2024 amid the lack of trust in his leadership.

Trudeau was required by Canadian law to call the election in October 2025, and his party was likely to lose.

Frank Graves, a Canadian poll and founder of the Ekos Research Associates, told ABC News that in January 2025, things that did not look good for the liberal party.

“Liberals reach the lowest modern position with 19 points support. That is very little for the liberal party,” he said. “In fact, [that] is a record for the 20th century. At the same time, the conservative party runs at 44 points, with a large 25 points, which will be a definite majority. “

He continued, “It seems that the conservatives are in a position only take a sip of beer and sail to the finish line and get their majority.”

In early December, only a few weeks after Trump won his second term, Trump commented that Canada must be the 51st state and call Trudeau as “Governor of Trudeau.”

Although initially pushed over by Canadian officials, Trump continued to float the 51st country rhetoric and began the threat to impose tariffs in Canada in January.

Trump also began to argue that the border withdrawn between the US and Canada was only arbitrary.

Ajadi said that although Trudeau decided to resign as the prime minister and leader of the liberal party, it still looked like the liberals would lose no matter who appeared as the next leader – but that’s when Trump’s comments kicked to high teeth.

“It still looks like the liberals are dead in the water, regardless of who will come as prime minister,” he said. “But when Donald Trump really began to strengthen the rhetoric of this 51st state, when he threatened the tariff and finally applied the tariff … it really shifted the way the poll went on.”

Carney gets support

In early March, the Canadian Liberal Party announced Mark Carney was chosen to replace Trudeau after party members voted in the nomination contest between four candidates.

Carney, who is the Governor of Bank Canada, is credited by helping to guide the country through the worst of the 2008 financial crisis and, as a former Governor of the Bank of England, helping to guide Britain through Brexit.

Ajadi said that Carney had found voters as “very capable and well educated” and as someone who could navigate the challenges caused by Trump’s rhetoric.

“He can say, ‘See my resume. I can help countries navigate and I can negotiate things for two different G7 countries,'” Ajadi said. “Like, ‘I have a wealth of this experience and, no, I am not a politician, but I am someone who has been able to navigate a very controversial political conversation.'”

This has caused a positive Net-22 rating for Carney in the election, according to Graves.

Poilievre lost support

While Carney and Liberal have seen an increase in support, Poilievre and conservatives have seen a decline in support.

Although opposition leaders have tried to paint Poilievre as an equivalent with Trump, political experts told ABC News that he had many different policies from Trump.

However, some Poilievre rhetoric has been seen by Canadians as Trump-esque, such as the hug of populist sentiment and calling opponents by nicknames, experts said.

In addition, Graves said Poilievre struggled to play his campaign from a series of spells about how “Canada was damaged” to overcome the threat of Trump’s administration.

“It’s hard to leave a strategy that has pushed you to a comfortable position in the election all night, which is almost what is needed,” Graves said.

Throughout February, conservative excellence in elections began to evaporate, according to Graves. He said at the end of February, the liberals reached a solid advantage, which had since been extended since Carney became prime minister.

Graves added that taking the US is the biggest problem now for Canadians, more than living expenses. When the poll participants were asked who they had the most confidence, Carney had a significant advantage.

“Because [Conservatives were] Still focused on the government, there is an opportunity for liberal leadership to control narratives about how to respond to the president, and Mr. Carney did it, “Chapnick said.” And when Carney became related to the leader who would stop Canada from the 51st state, liberal support skyrocketed. “

Canadians are postponed by Trump’s actions

Political experts say they have noted the anger of Canadians towards the US after Trump’s rhetoric.

“Canadians try not to travel to the United States,” Chapnick said. “They are trying not to buy American products. This idea that we can no longer rely on the United States has led to some significant changes.”

The Airline and State Tourism Council said they had seen a trip from Canada to the US decline in February and March.

Canadian citizen Garry Liboiron told ABC News that he viewed Poilievre as “Mini Trump,” who will “definitely play against him.”

Garry Liboiron and his wife, Liz Liboiron, said that “the name of the name and all childish rhetoric” has made them sell their winter houses in San Tan Valley, Arizona, a place they usually resign when their hometown in Coburg-which is a watch east of Toronto-filled with snow in the winter months.

“It’s very sad because we were not forced to go, but we almost felt like we were pushed by rhetoric coming out of Washington lately towards Canada and Canada,” Liz Liboiron told ABC News.

Both of them were in their “farewell tour” in the US, traveling to their favorite place for the last time, without real indications they would return because of the “current situation” from Trump’s administration.

“Liz and I don’t understand how this is permitted to continue and things that happen seem to be even more frightening as it goes every day. So, we say, ‘Let’s sell now,'” Garry Liboiron said.

Garry Liboiron said he thought the election of Canada would result in a liberal majority victory. He has noticed Carney’s popularity “[shoot] like a rocket. “

Cam Canadian Hayden, who has traveled to 45 out of 50 states and often become US visitors, also decided to boycott the country shortly after the presidential election.

When Trump made a claim to angest Canada, it was a moment called Hayden “its peak point.”

“I said, ‘Forget it, I will never return until there is a change in administration and changes in attitude,'” Hayden told ABC News.

Hayden, the owner of the Edmonton Music Festival, used to travel to the US to see various players. He established many friends in America for many years, but said he could not support the country with the current government.

“I am still in contact with my friends [in the U.S.]And we are still good friends. It’s just that I can’t see myself supporting the government that has commented that they want to annex the country where I live, “Hayden said.

ABC News’ Victoria Beauty, Bill Hutchinson, Ivan Pereira and Sam Sweeney contributed to this report.